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By Don Yocham, CFA

Posted: February 7, 2025

The Holy Trinity of Growth

The War for the American Way has begun.

Since taking office on January 20, Trump and his administration have launched a full-scale assault against the bloated, unaccountable bureaucracy suffocating the U.S. economy. 

Sixty-five thousand do-nothing paper pushers have taken up Trump’s offer to leave – so far.

Federal agencies must eliminate ten regulations for every new regulation enacted.

Meanwhile, DOGE has begun parsing through $5 trillion in treasury payments, shut down USAID’s $80 billion budget, and now hopes to eliminate fraud and waste among the $1.5 trillion flowing through Medicare and Medicaid.

But this isn’t just about cutting red tape. It’s about unleashing an economic revolution.

As bureaucratic barriers collapse, three powerful forces—deregulation, technology, and energy abundance—are converging to ignite a surge in productivity greater than any that has ever come before.

With energy production set to skyrocket to fuel this deregulated, AI-driven growth, the real winners will be the companies delivering energy to fuel America’s next great boom.

The Holy Trinity of Growth

Economic growth fundamentally hinges on productivity—the efficiency with which an economy transforms inputs into outputs.

Increasing productivity means each individual’s ability to provide goods and services improves. This per capita increase in output delivers higher wages, improved living standards, and overall economic expansion.

But productivity doesn’t happen in a vacuum. It needs the right environment to thrive. And deregulation, technology, and energy abundance will soon converge to deliver the perfect conditions for productivity to work its magic.

Fewer bureaucratic hurdles through deregulation allow businesses to operate more efficiently. It also increases competition by removing the regulatory moats large companies like banks rely on to keep competition at bay.

More competition ultimately delivers more for less.

During the Industrial Revolution, mechanization and other leaps in technology and process significantly boosted productivity, resulting in unprecedented economic growth. China’s phenomenal growth during the ’90s and ‘00s was largely due to transitioning subsistence farmers from fields to factories where they could produce more goods. And the late 20th century in general saw a productivity surge driven by information technology advancements.

And the near daily AI breakthroughs suggest the productivity gains will come fast and be broadly distributed.

The final piece, energy abundance, gives the American economy another advantage. Trump’s Drill, Baby, Drill mandate seeks to increase oil production by 3,000,000 barrels per day—a roughly 1/3 increase from current production levels. Energy companies are rushing to build natural gas-fired power plants at data center sites. New LNG plants previously restricted by the Biden administration have the green light to move forward.

The spoils of Trump’s war on bureaucracy will lift the entire economy, but the energy sector lies at the center of it all.

Whether oil and gas prices increase doesn’t matter. What matters most is that drilling, production, and transport will rise significantly. And that’s bullish for equipment and services stocks as well as oil and gas storage and transportation.

I’ll have details on that opportunity ready for you next week.

Until then, get ready to buy.

Think Free. Be Free.

Don Yocham, CFA

Managing Editor of The Capital List

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